Workforce Surge

The Synchronized "Workforce Surge": Hiding the True Traffic Impact

The developer’s traffic studies rely on generic models that severely deflate the true impact this massive 163-unit development will have on our local infrastructure. By masking the reality of how high-density workforce housing actually operates, the developer appears to be underestimating a severe threat to our daily commute and emergency evacuation routes.

The Flawed Methodology: Using Generic Codes To calculate traffic estimates, the applicant used standard codes from the ITE (Institute of Transportation Engineers) Trip Generation Manual. Rather than using data that reflects actual high-density workforce housing, they broke the units into generic categories like "Single Family Attached," "Multifamily Housing Low-Rise," and "Affordable Housing".

By improperly classifying large portions of the development under these generic labels, the original traffic studies (now updated) projected artificially low daily trips by assuming these units function like transit-dependent affordable housing. In reality, these units will function as vehicle-dependent commuter hubs.

The Reality: The Synchronized "Workforce Surge" This project is not standard residential housing; it is dedicated workforce housing for a major ski operator. High-density workforce housing for an employer like Aspen One involves rigid, synchronized shift schedules (e.g., mountain operations and ski patrol).

This creates a "workforce surge"—a compressed window where hundreds of commuters leave for work at the exact same time. Because the developer's current traffic study relies on generic "averages" spread across a standard peak hour, it misses this synchronized, instantaneous traffic spike. Consequently, hundreds of upvalley commuters will hit the exact same failing intersection (El Jebel Road and SH-82) during synchronized shift windows, worsening the gridlock and causing a much higher instantaneous impact than generic models suggest.

Ignoring Real-World Data: Downvalley Properties Prove the Threat What makes this flawed methodology even more unacceptable is that Aspen One already operates extensive employee housing properties downvalley in Carbondale and Basalt (including Keator Grove, Sopris View Apartments, Thunder River Lodge, The Hub at Willits, and the Aspen Basalt Campground). They could easily provide real, empirically backed data to gauge the exact upvalley traffic impacts their workers have on Highway 82.

Instead of measuring the actual daily vehicle trips generated by their existing downvalley workforce, Aspen One chose to rely on hypothetical, generic models that deflate and hide the true severity of the workforce surge.

Conclusion We cannot allow our roads to be overwhelmed because traffic reports do not rely on realistic data. The Planning Commission must require a rigorous, site-specific traffic analysis that accurately models the high-density "workforce surge" using real-world downvalley commuter data before any approvals or safety variances are granted.